複選題(每題請選出2 個錯誤的敘述),共4 題,每題5 分,共20 分,請於試卷
上「選擇題作答區:第1 題到第4 題」內依序作答。
About describing data:
A relative frequency is the number of observations belonging to a category.
Put the labels of the categories in order in a bar chart when showing the frequencies
of an ordinal variable.
The boxplot shows the mean plus or minus one standard deviation of the data.
The histogram balanced on the mean.
複選題(每題請選出2 個錯誤的敘述),共4 題,每題5 分,共20 分,請於試卷
上「選擇題作答區:第1 題到第4 題」內依序作答。
About association between variables:
The percentages of cases in the first column within each row of a contingency table
are the same if the variables are not associated.
If the categorical variable that identifies the supervising manager is associated with
the categorical variable that indicates a problem with processing orders, then the
manager is causing the problem.
The correlation between sales and advertising when both are measured in millions
of dollars is 0.65. The correlation remains the same if we convert these variables
into thousands of dollars.
A report gives the covariance between the number of employees at an assembly
factory and the total number of items produced daily. The covariance would be
larger is these data were aggregated to monthly totals.
A gasoline station collected data on its monthly sales over the past three years alone
with the average selling price of gasoline. A scatterplot of sales on price of gasoline
showed positive association, suggesting that higher prices attract more customers.
複選題(每題請選出2 個錯誤的敘述),共4 題,每題5 分,共20 分,請於試卷
上「選擇題作答區:第1 題到第4 題」內依序作答。
A market research assistant watches the next five shoppers as they leave the
supermarket. He records whether the shopper is carrying a store bag that indicates the
shopper made a purchase. He writes down a yes or a no for each observation. Define
the events. (5%)
A = {first two shoppers have a bag}
B = {last two shoppers have a bag}
C = {last three shoppers have a bag}
The sample space S for this observation has 32 elements.
The assumption of independence means that each shopper has the same probability
for carrying a bag.
The probability that a randomly selected shopper purchases with a credit card or
spends more than $500 is the same as or larger than the probability that the shopper
purchases with a credit card and spends more than $500.
The probability that both events B and C occur, P(B &C) , is equal to P(B) .
If each shopper has the same chance of making a purchase and shoppers behave
independently, then P(A&C) = P(A) * P(C) .
複選題(每題請選出2 個錯誤的敘述),共4 題,每題5 分,共20 分,請於試卷
上「選擇題作答區:第1 題到第4 題」內依序作答。
The number of packages handles by a freight carrier daily is normally distributed. On
average, 8,000 packages are shipped each day, with standard deviation 600. Assume
the package counts are independent from one day to the next.
The difference between the number of packages shipped on any two consecutive
days is normally distributed.
If each shipped package earns the carrier $25, then the amount earned per day is
still normally distributed.
To verify the user of a normal model, the freight carrier can use the normal quantile
plot of the amount shipped on a series of days.
The probability that more packages are handles tomorrow than today is unable to
determine.
The difference between the numbers of packages shipped today and the number
shipped tomorrow is zero.
A shipment of assembly parts from a vendor offering inexpensive parts is used in a
manufacturing plant. The box of 12 parts contains 5 that are defective and will not fit
during assembly. A worker picks parts one at a time and attempts to install them. Find
the probability of each outcome. (10%)
(一) The first two chosen are both good.
(二) At least one of the first three is good.
(三) The first four picked are all good.
(四) The worker has to pick five parts to find on that is good.
To boost interest in its big sale, a retailer offers special scratch-off coupons. When the
shopper makes a purchase, the clerk scratches of the covering to reveal the amount of
the discount. The discount is 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, or 50% of the initial amount. Half
of the coupons give 50% off.
(一) What are your chances of getting more than 30% off of your purchase?
(二) A clerk was surprised and suspicious when three shoppers in a row appeared with
coupons that gave them half off. Should he have been suspicious?
(三) Half of the customers at a register purchase a sweater that retails for $50 and the
other half purchase a suit that retails for $200. What is the probability that a
customer saves more than $20 by using one coupon? Be clear about any
assumptions you make.
It was the morning of early November, 2010, and David Bettman, senior marketing
director of CreaTech Corp., just walked out of a conference room heading toward his
harbor-view office across the hallway at the 57th floor of Columbia Center, Seattle. What
bothered Bettman most in the morning meeting was not the availability of Zhu Zhu Hamsters
(the Christmas gift for his three years old daughter), but the commercialization of CreaTech’s
first ever new tablet PC, CreaSlate, which targeted on business women and was scheduled
to debut in the second quarter of 2011. CreaTech, a startup founded in 2008 and
headquartered in Seattle, developed and sold a variety of handheld electronic devices.
Bettman believed that to ensure a solid and profitable standing in the tablet PC market,
CreaSlate’s daily sales had to reach as many as 600 units in the early introduction stage;
however, he knew very well that it was almost impossible to accurately forecast the market
needs or sales of a new product, especially when the market competition was extremely
intensive and the tablet PC market was still not stable yet. In the morning meeting, derived
from the data collected in an online survey, the market. The data were collected from
CreaTech’s Facebook website. Viewers browsing this website were invited to fill in the
survey regarding purchase intention of CreaSlate. Even through the forecast report on
CreaSlate’s initial sales seemed promising, the investment in manufacturing and marketing
CreaSlate was extremely large. That is, if the evidence concluded that CreaSlate would not
be launched profitably, the introduction of CreaSlate should be halted or the target and
positioning of CreaSlate should be redefined. After returning to his office, Bettman
glimpsed the current issue of Business Week on his desktop and his attention was
immediately caught by the headline saying that the global tablet PC market would reach 50
million units by 2012. The enclosed article also cited the prediction of Ballmer (CEO of
Microsoft) that table PC would eventually occupied 1/3 of overall PC market. If the
industrial overview on table PC was exceptionally positive, Bettman would totally regret
not being able to enter the market if CreaSlate could turn out to be profitable.
Bettman’s concern on the unavailability of true market needs/sales of CreaSlate in the
process of hypothesis testing on CreaSlate’s daily sales can be best characterized
by ________ .
“夫言非吹也,言者有言,其所言者特未定也。”莊子,齊物論
“夫知有所待而後當,其所待者特未定也。”莊子,大宗師
“反者道之動,弱者道之用。”老子,第四十章
“天下皆知美之為美,斯惡已。皆知善之為善,斯不善已。”老子,第二章
It was the morning of early November, 2010, and David Bettman, senior marketing
director of CreaTech Corp., just walked out of a conference room heading toward his
harbor-view office across the hallway at the 57th floor of Columbia Center, Seattle. What
bothered Bettman most in the morning meeting was not the availability of Zhu Zhu Hamsters
(the Christmas gift for his three years old daughter), but the commercialization of CreaTech’s
first ever new tablet PC, CreaSlate, which targeted on business women and was scheduled
to debut in the second quarter of 2011. CreaTech, a startup founded in 2008 and
headquartered in Seattle, developed and sold a variety of handheld electronic devices.
Bettman believed that to ensure a solid and profitable standing in the tablet PC market,
CreaSlate’s daily sales had to reach as many as 600 units in the early introduction stage;
however, he knew very well that it was almost impossible to accurately forecast the market
needs or sales of a new product, especially when the market competition was extremely
intensive and the tablet PC market was still not stable yet. In the morning meeting, derived
from the data collected in an online survey, the market. The data were collected from
CreaTech’s Facebook website. Viewers browsing this website were invited to fill in the
survey regarding purchase intention of CreaSlate. Even through the forecast report on
CreaSlate’s initial sales seemed promising, the investment in manufacturing and marketing
CreaSlate was extremely large. That is, if the evidence concluded that CreaSlate would not
be launched profitably, the introduction of CreaSlate should be halted or the target and
positioning of CreaSlate should be redefined. After returning to his office, Bettman
glimpsed the current issue of Business Week on his desktop and his attention was
immediately caught by the headline saying that the global tablet PC market would reach 50
million units by 2012. The enclosed article also cited the prediction of Ballmer (CEO of
Microsoft) that table PC would eventually occupied 1/3 of overall PC market. If the
industrial overview on table PC was exceptionally positive, Bettman would totally regret
not being able to enter the market if CreaSlate could turn out to be profitable.
635 units of daily sales predicted by the market research team ________
reduced the uncertainty of Bettman on whether CreaSlate might be profitable.
represented a sampling result from the true population is US market.
was irrelevant to the demand forecast of CreaSlate’s target market.
might serve as a benchmark against which the true performance of CreaSlate’s
sales in US market could be compared.
It was the morning of early November, 2010, and David Bettman, senior marketing
director of CreaTech Corp., just walked out of a conference room heading toward his
harbor-view office across the hallway at the 57th floor of Columbia Center, Seattle. What
bothered Bettman most in the morning meeting was not the availability of Zhu Zhu Hamsters
(the Christmas gift for his three years old daughter), but the commercialization of CreaTech’s
first ever new tablet PC, CreaSlate, which targeted on business women and was scheduled
to debut in the second quarter of 2011. CreaTech, a startup founded in 2008 and
headquartered in Seattle, developed and sold a variety of handheld electronic devices.
Bettman believed that to ensure a solid and profitable standing in the tablet PC market,
CreaSlate’s daily sales had to reach as many as 600 units in the early introduction stage;
however, he knew very well that it was almost impossible to accurately forecast the market
needs or sales of a new product, especially when the market competition was extremely
intensive and the tablet PC market was still not stable yet. In the morning meeting, derived
from the data collected in an online survey, the market. The data were collected from
CreaTech’s Facebook website. Viewers browsing this website were invited to fill in the
survey regarding purchase intention of CreaSlate. Even through the forecast report on
CreaSlate’s initial sales seemed promising, the investment in manufacturing and marketing
CreaSlate was extremely large. That is, if the evidence concluded that CreaSlate would not
be launched profitably, the introduction of CreaSlate should be halted or the target and
positioning of CreaSlate should be redefined. After returning to his office, Bettman
glimpsed the current issue of Business Week on his desktop and his attention was
immediately caught by the headline saying that the global tablet PC market would reach 50
million units by 2012. The enclosed article also cited the prediction of Ballmer (CEO of
Microsoft) that table PC would eventually occupied 1/3 of overall PC market. If the
industrial overview on table PC was exceptionally positive, Bettman would totally regret
not being able to enter the market if CreaSlate could turn out to be profitable.
If Bettman concerned much more about the tremendous investment of unprofitable
launch of CreaSlate, what would be the alternative hypothesis to examine the launch
decision based on daily sales forecast?
Ha: u > 600
Ha: u < 600
Ha: u = 600
Ha: u ≠ 600
It was the morning of early November, 2010, and David Bettman, senior marketing
director of CreaTech Corp., just walked out of a conference room heading toward his
harbor-view office across the hallway at the 57th floor of Columbia Center, Seattle. What
bothered Bettman most in the morning meeting was not the availability of Zhu Zhu Hamsters
(the Christmas gift for his three years old daughter), but the commercialization of CreaTech’s
first ever new tablet PC, CreaSlate, which targeted on business women and was scheduled
to debut in the second quarter of 2011. CreaTech, a startup founded in 2008 and
headquartered in Seattle, developed and sold a variety of handheld electronic devices.
Bettman believed that to ensure a solid and profitable standing in the tablet PC market,
CreaSlate’s daily sales had to reach as many as 600 units in the early introduction stage;
however, he knew very well that it was almost impossible to accurately forecast the market
needs or sales of a new product, especially when the market competition was extremely
intensive and the tablet PC market was still not stable yet. In the morning meeting, derived
from the data collected in an online survey, the market. The data were collected from
CreaTech’s Facebook website. Viewers browsing this website were invited to fill in the
survey regarding purchase intention of CreaSlate. Even through the forecast report on
CreaSlate’s initial sales seemed promising, the investment in manufacturing and marketing
CreaSlate was extremely large. That is, if the evidence concluded that CreaSlate would not
be launched profitably, the introduction of CreaSlate should be halted or the target and
positioning of CreaSlate should be redefined. After returning to his office, Bettman
glimpsed the current issue of Business Week on his desktop and his attention was
immediately caught by the headline saying that the global tablet PC market would reach 50
million units by 2012. The enclosed article also cited the prediction of Ballmer (CEO of
Microsoft) that table PC would eventually occupied 1/3 of overall PC market. If the
industrial overview on table PC was exceptionally positive, Bettman would totally regret
not being able to enter the market if CreaSlate could turn out to be profitable.
If Bettman concerned much more about the potential loss of not being able to launch
profitable CreaSlate, what would be the alternative hypothesis to examine the launch
decision based on daily sales forecast?
Ha: u > 600
Ha: u < 600
Ha: u = 600
Ha: u ≠ 600
It was the morning of early November, 2010, and David Bettman, senior marketing
director of CreaTech Corp., just walked out of a conference room heading toward his
harbor-view office across the hallway at the 57th floor of Columbia Center, Seattle. What
bothered Bettman most in the morning meeting was not the availability of Zhu Zhu Hamsters
(the Christmas gift for his three years old daughter), but the commercialization of CreaTech’s
first ever new tablet PC, CreaSlate, which targeted on business women and was scheduled
to debut in the second quarter of 2011. CreaTech, a startup founded in 2008 and
headquartered in Seattle, developed and sold a variety of handheld electronic devices.
Bettman believed that to ensure a solid and profitable standing in the tablet PC market,
CreaSlate’s daily sales had to reach as many as 600 units in the early introduction stage;
however, he knew very well that it was almost impossible to accurately forecast the market
needs or sales of a new product, especially when the market competition was extremely
intensive and the tablet PC market was still not stable yet. In the morning meeting, derived
from the data collected in an online survey, the market. The data were collected from
CreaTech’s Facebook website. Viewers browsing this website were invited to fill in the
survey regarding purchase intention of CreaSlate. Even through the forecast report on
CreaSlate’s initial sales seemed promising, the investment in manufacturing and marketing
CreaSlate was extremely large. That is, if the evidence concluded that CreaSlate would not
be launched profitably, the introduction of CreaSlate should be halted or the target and
positioning of CreaSlate should be redefined. After returning to his office, Bettman
glimpsed the current issue of Business Week on his desktop and his attention was
immediately caught by the headline saying that the global tablet PC market would reach 50
million units by 2012. The enclosed article also cited the prediction of Ballmer (CEO of
Microsoft) that table PC would eventually occupied 1/3 of overall PC market. If the
industrial overview on table PC was exceptionally positive, Bettman would totally regret
not being able to enter the market if CreaSlate could turn out to be profitable.
What would be the null hypothesis when Bettman concerned much more about the
extreme investment of unprofitable launch of CreaSlate?
Ha: u > 600
Ha: u < 600
Ha: u = 600
Ha: u ≠ 600
It was the morning of early November, 2010, and David Bettman, senior marketing
director of CreaTech Corp., just walked out of a conference room heading toward his
harbor-view office across the hallway at the 57th floor of Columbia Center, Seattle. What
bothered Bettman most in the morning meeting was not the availability of Zhu Zhu Hamsters
(the Christmas gift for his three years old daughter), but the commercialization of CreaTech’s
first ever new tablet PC, CreaSlate, which targeted on business women and was scheduled
to debut in the second quarter of 2011. CreaTech, a startup founded in 2008 and
headquartered in Seattle, developed and sold a variety of handheld electronic devices.
Bettman believed that to ensure a solid and profitable standing in the tablet PC market,
CreaSlate’s daily sales had to reach as many as 600 units in the early introduction stage;
however, he knew very well that it was almost impossible to accurately forecast the market
needs or sales of a new product, especially when the market competition was extremely
intensive and the tablet PC market was still not stable yet. In the morning meeting, derived
from the data collected in an online survey, the market. The data were collected from
CreaTech’s Facebook website. Viewers browsing this website were invited to fill in the
survey regarding purchase intention of CreaSlate. Even through the forecast report on
CreaSlate’s initial sales seemed promising, the investment in manufacturing and marketing
CreaSlate was extremely large. That is, if the evidence concluded that CreaSlate would not
be launched profitably, the introduction of CreaSlate should be halted or the target and
positioning of CreaSlate should be redefined. After returning to his office, Bettman
glimpsed the current issue of Business Week on his desktop and his attention was
immediately caught by the headline saying that the global tablet PC market would reach 50
million units by 2012. The enclosed article also cited the prediction of Ballmer (CEO of
Microsoft) that table PC would eventually occupied 1/3 of overall PC market. If the
industrial overview on table PC was exceptionally positive, Bettman would totally regret
not being able to enter the market if CreaSlate could turn out to be profitable.
When Bettman concerned much more about the potential loss of not being able to
launch profitable CreaSlate, another credible report that the demand of tablet PC would
reach 80 million units by 2012 would make the significance level ________ .
unchanged
increased or reduced
increased
reduced
It was the morning of early November, 2010, and David Bettman, senior marketing
director of CreaTech Corp., just walked out of a conference room heading toward his
harbor-view office across the hallway at the 57th floor of Columbia Center, Seattle. What
bothered Bettman most in the morning meeting was not the availability of Zhu Zhu Hamsters
(the Christmas gift for his three years old daughter), but the commercialization of CreaTech’s
first ever new tablet PC, CreaSlate, which targeted on business women and was scheduled
to debut in the second quarter of 2011. CreaTech, a startup founded in 2008 and
headquartered in Seattle, developed and sold a variety of handheld electronic devices.
Bettman believed that to ensure a solid and profitable standing in the tablet PC market,
CreaSlate’s daily sales had to reach as many as 600 units in the early introduction stage;
however, he knew very well that it was almost impossible to accurately forecast the market
needs or sales of a new product, especially when the market competition was extremely
intensive and the tablet PC market was still not stable yet. In the morning meeting, derived
from the data collected in an online survey, the market. The data were collected from
CreaTech’s Facebook website. Viewers browsing this website were invited to fill in the
survey regarding purchase intention of CreaSlate. Even through the forecast report on
CreaSlate’s initial sales seemed promising, the investment in manufacturing and marketing
CreaSlate was extremely large. That is, if the evidence concluded that CreaSlate would not
be launched profitably, the introduction of CreaSlate should be halted or the target and
positioning of CreaSlate should be redefined. After returning to his office, Bettman
glimpsed the current issue of Business Week on his desktop and his attention was
immediately caught by the headline saying that the global tablet PC market would reach 50
million units by 2012. The enclosed article also cited the prediction of Ballmer (CEO of
Microsoft) that table PC would eventually occupied 1/3 of overall PC market. If the
industrial overview on table PC was exceptionally positive, Bettman would totally regret
not being able to enter the market if CreaSlate could turn out to be profitable.
Which of the followings could enhance the power of the test when Bettman concerned
much more about the tremendous investment of unprofitable launch of CreaSlate?
The sample size was increased by collecting more responses on Facebook.
The cost of manufacturing process was increased.
More business women were recruited to examine the hypothesis.
A credible report suggested that the demand of table PC would only reach 5 million
units by 2012.
Bettman was aware that a lot of factors might influence the sales of a new product. One of
factors came to his mind was number of sales representative (NSR). In order to identify the
potential contribution of NSR on sales, Bettman asked the market research team to retrieve
sales information, from CreaTech’s database of sales on E-reader, of 10 cities from the east
America and another 10 cities from the west America. The 10 pairs of cities were selected
such that the sales within each pair were identical, and it was not necessary that sales across
pairs were exactly the same.
NSR from the east America for pair 1 to pair 10 was 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9
respectively, and the counterpart from the west America was 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1
respectively.
In the regression of sales on NSR for the east America, let the estimated coefficient of
NSR be b . What would be the estimated coefficient of NSR on the same regression
for the west America?
b
−b
10 −b
Need more information to make the estimation, such as sales of 10 cities.
Bettman was aware that a lot of factors might influence the sales of a new product. One of
factors came to his mind was number of sales representative (NSR). In order to identify the
potential contribution of NSR on sales, Bettman asked the market research team to retrieve
sales information, from CreaTech’s database of sales on E-reader, of 10 cities from the east
America and another 10 cities from the west America. The 10 pairs of cities were selected
such that the sales within each pair were identical, and it was not necessary that sales across
pairs were exactly the same.
NSR from the east America for pair 1 to pair 10 was 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9
respectively, and the counterpart from the west America was 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1
respectively.
If the coefficient of correlation between NSR and sales in 10 cities of the west America
was r , what would be R-square in the regression of sales on NSR for the east
America?
r2
(10 − r)2
100 − r2
Need more information, such as sales of 10 cities.
Bettman was aware that a lot of factors might influence the sales of a new product. One of
factors came to his mind was number of sales representative (NSR). In order to identify the
potential contribution of NSR on sales, Bettman asked the market research team to retrieve
sales information, from CreaTech’s database of sales on E-reader, of 10 cities from the east
America and another 10 cities from the west America. The 10 pairs of cities were selected
such that the sales within each pair were identical, and it was not necessary that sales across
pairs were exactly the same.
NSR from the east America for pair 1 to pair 10 was 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9
respectively, and the counterpart from the west America was 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1
respectively.
In the regression of sales on NSR for the east America, let the estimated coefficient of
NSR be b , and the lower limit of b’s confidence interval be L and upper limit be
U . What would be the lower limit of confidence interval for the estimated coefficient
of NSR on the same regression for the west America?
−L
10 −L
−U
Need more information, such as sales of 10 cities.
Bettman was aware that a lot of factors might influence the sales of a new product. One of
factors came to his mind was number of sales representative (NSR). In order to identify the
potential contribution of NSR on sales, Bettman asked the market research team to retrieve
sales information, from CreaTech’s database of sales on E-reader, of 10 cities from the east
America and another 10 cities from the west America. The 10 pairs of cities were selected
such that the sales within each pair were identical, and it was not necessary that sales across
pairs were exactly the same.
NSR from the east America for pair 1 to pair 10 was 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9
respectively, and the counterpart from the west America was 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1
respectively.
In the regression of sales on NSR for the east America, let the estimated coefficient of
NSR be b . If the data from the west America is merged with the data from the east
America, 20 observations would be included in the new dataset. In the same regression
of sales on NSR for the merged data, what would be the estimated coefficient of NSR?
b
−b
0
Need more information, such as sales of 10 cities.
Bettman was aware that a lot of factors might influence the sales of a new product. One of
factors came to his mind was number of sales representative (NSR). In order to identify the
potential contribution of NSR on sales, Bettman asked the market research team to retrieve
sales information, from CreaTech’s database of sales on E-reader, of 10 cities from the east
America and another 10 cities from the west America. The 10 pairs of cities were selected
such that the sales within each pair were identical, and it was not necessary that sales across
pairs were exactly the same.
NSR from the east America for pair 1 to pair 10 was 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9
respectively, and the counterpart from the west America was 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1
respectively.
Even though some factors might not predict sales perfectly well, Bettman noticed that
sales units (U) and sales dollars (D) showed a functional relationship. That is, D
would always be equivalent to U multiplied by the constant unit price (P) , i.e.,
D = f (U) or D =U * P . In the other words, U was a perfect predictor of D .
Which of the following is correct?
The market research team could run a regression of D on U , and the estimated
coefficient of U would be P .
If the significance level was set extremely low, the lower limit of confidence
interval of the estimated coefficient of U would be reduced.
If the significance level was set relatively high, the upper limit of confidence
interval of the estimated coefficient of U would be reduced.
The covariance between D and U was positive.
可觀看題目詳解,並提供模擬測驗!(免費會員無法觀看研究所試題解答)